Job market paper
Loyalty, Competence, and the Allocation of Office under Threat
Evidence from Qing China
How does the kind of threat a state faces change which offices rulers give to politically connected insiders? Using annual records of provincial officials in Qing China, 1825–1911, I compare changes in the representation of the dynasty’s hereditary service elite following rebellions and foreign wars. Rebellion is followed by a rise in insiders’ representation among governors-general and governors; no comparable rise is detected after foreign war. The evidence is strongest for the provincial executive, while differences in the threat contrast across offices are not established.
The rebellion estimate depends substantially on provinces reached by the Taiping war in 1853 and on how the arrival of war is dated.
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